featured image for podcast episodeHow Did You Calculate That Return?

How Did You Calculate That Return?
Episode 347

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Posted by Choose FI

Episode Guide

Episode Summary:

This episode delves into the often misunderstood concepts of percentage returns and their implications on investment. Brad shares a thought-provoking scenario regarding returns on investments, leading to a discussion on how statistical misunderstandings can lead to significant financial miscalculations. The hosts break down the difference between nominal gains and real wealth as they explore the concept of compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and its relevance in investment planning and retirement strategies. They emphasize the importance of understanding the sequence of returns and highlight the concept of safe withdrawal rates for retirement. Listeners are encouraged to appreciate the nuances of financial mathematics and the impact of market volatility on portfolio success. The episode also touches on the value of financial literacy and entrepreneurial skills for the next generation.

Episode Timestamps

ChooseFI Podcast Episode Notes

Episode Title: Understanding the Complexities of Investment Returns and Financial Literacy for Kids

Episode Summary:
Discussions on the complexities of percentage returns challenge conventional thinking about money growth. Brad Barrett and Dominick Quartuccio dissect what a 200% return truly means, illustrating how common misconceptions can lead to strategic errors in financial planning. They emphasize the importance of understanding return calculations, particularly in the context of market performance and retirement planning. The pair also dives into critical financial concepts such as the safe withdrawal rate and the impact of withdrawal timing on retirement success. They bring attention to the average return's potential limitations and introduce the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) as a more realistic measure. Finally, the episode highlights the significance of entrepreneurial skills for children, featuring Rob Phelan, who discusses his program designed to teach young minds practical business skills, expanding their financial literacy from an early age.


Key Topics Discussed

  • Understanding Returns

    • Discussion of how returns can be misleading.
    • A 200% return actually means tripling your initial investment, not merely doubling it.
  • Percentage Loss vs. Gain

    • A percentage loss is more detrimental than an equal percentage gain.
    • Real-life scenarios to illustrate this point.
  • The Sequence of Returns

    • Importance of the order of returns and how it affects overall investment outcomes.
    • Introduction of the concept of CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate).
  • Safe Withdrawal Rates

    • Explanation of the safe withdrawal rate and its relevance to retirement planning.
    • The significance of achieving a stable financial foundation for retirement.
  • Financial Literacy for Kids

    • Interview with Rob Phelan about teaching entrepreneurial skills to children.
    • Emphasis on the long-term benefits of financial literacy and entrepreneurship for young minds.

Actionable Takeaways

  • Rethink Return Percentages

    Consider how misleading return percentages may affect your financial perspective.

  • Plan for the Sequence of Returns

    Take the sequence of returns into account when planning your retirement withdrawals.

  • Empower Kids with Entrepreneurial Skills

    Encourage teaching entrepreneurial skills to prepare children for a financially savvy future.


Key Quotes

  • "A thousand percent return equates to 10X your investment."
  • "A percentage loss is more detrimental than a percentage gain."
  • "Covering your expenses is the primary financial goal."
  • "Promoting financial literacy fosters future independence."

Speaker Highlights

  • Brad Barrett: Co-host and financial planner discussing key financial concepts.
  • Dominick Quartuccio: Co-host exploring the implications of financial decisions and guest interviews.
  • Rob Phelan: Founder of Simple Startup discussing entrepreneurship for kids.

  • M is for Money - Children's Book
    Available Here - A valuable resource for teaching children about basic money vocabulary.

Important Timestamps

  • Understanding Returns
  • Percentage Loss vs. Gain
  • The Sequence of Returns
  • Safe Withdrawal Rates
  • Financial Literacy for Kids

Discussion Questions

  • How do changing perspectives on percentage returns affect personal finance strategies?
  • What is your understanding of safe withdrawal rates, and how can it impact retirement planning?

Episode Mentions

  • Episode 199: Making Portfolio Adjustments with Big Ern
  • Episode 176: Flexible Spending Rules with Michael Kitsis
  • Episode 206: Keys to a Successful Retirement with Fritz Gilbert

Podcast Description

Dive deep into the world of financial independence and explore often misunderstood concepts around investment returns. This episode features discussions on critical topics like safe withdrawal rates and the impact of financial literacy for children, framed through real-world examples and expert insights.

Understanding Investment Returns

Investing can be complex, and understanding the nuances of percentage returns is critical for effective financial planning. Many often misconstrue what a return like 200% actually means, thinking it simply equates to doubling their initial investment. In reality, a 200% return means your investment has increased by two times the original amount, totaling three times the initial investment. This calculation illustrates why it's essential to rethink how we view return percentages.

The Reality of Percentage Gains and Losses

Calculated returns can be misleading. A common misconception is that returning to a previous value after a loss signifies a full recovery. However, if an investment drops by 50%, you need a 100% gain to return to your original amount. This misunderstanding can have severe consequences in financial strategies. It's imperative to grasp the concept that a percentage loss is often more detrimental than a percentage gain of the same value.

Safe Withdrawal Rates Explained

As you approach retirement, knowing a safe withdrawal rate is vital. The most commonly referenced withdrawal rate is approximately 4%, which suggests that if you withdraw this percentage from your retirement savings annually, you are likely to maintain your portfolio without depleting it too quickly. The idea is to multiply your annual expenses by 25 to determine what you need invested to sustain that level of withdrawal.

The Importance of the Sequence of Returns

Beyond understanding withdrawal rates, one must also consider the sequence of returns, especially during the early years of retirement. The timing of poor market performance can dramatically impact your retirement savings. This emphasizes the need for strategic withdrawal planning, as the first few years of returns can determine the long-term sustainability of your portfolio. When planning withdrawals, prioritize your sequence of returns to optimize financial longevity.

Leveraging Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

While most are familiar with average returns, it is crucial to comprehend the concept of Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). This figure provides a more realistic view of investment growth over time by calculating the rate at which an investment would have grown if profits were reinvested. Understanding CAGR helps in discerning the realities of market fluctuations versus simplified average calculations.

Taking Action on Your Investment Strategy

To solidify your understanding of how returns work, take the time to calculate your personal safe withdrawal rate. Evaluate your investment portfolio, and consider how past returns might shape future decisions. A serious evaluation enables smarter financial moves that safeguard your future.

Fostering Financial Literacy in Children

Financial education should not stop with adults; it’s equally important to empower the next generation with essential skills. Introducing kids to the principles of entrepreneurship is one method of enhancing their financial literacy.

Encouraging Entrepreneurial Skills

Kids can benefit greatly from learning about entrepreneurship, which teaches them critical financial concepts and problem-solving abilities. Engaging children in entrepreneurial activities can start with simple projects like lemonade stands, but it should extend beyond those traditional ideas. Encourage them to think creatively and practically about solving problems for their peers.

Building a Foundation for Future Success

Entrepreneurship instills values such as resilience, creativity, and resourcefulness. Programs designed to teach kids these skills can help instill not only financial competence but also contribute towards shaping future leaders who can navigate the complex financial landscape. Help them understand the importance of networking, marketing, and customer service. These are skills that will serve them well, regardless of the career path they choose.

Final Thoughts on Financial Independence

Achieving financial independence is about more than just numbers on a screen; it is about understanding how those numbers work together in achieving your life goals. Embrace a mindset where you control your financial destiny by adequately planning and preparing for future needs.

Taking Control of Your Financial Future

Ultimately, your primary financial goal should be to cover your expenses comfortably. This gives you a framework to work within, allowing you to adjust your lifestyle and spending to match your long-term objectives. Recognize that a strong financial foundation is built on solid knowledge, keen awareness of market dynamics, and practical strategies for savings and investment.

Through responsible planning and a commitment to lifelong learning, you can navigate your financial future confidently and resiliently. It is never too early—or too late—to begin. Equip yourself with the tools and knowledge to foster your own financial independence journey as well as your children's.

In this week's episode, Brad and Jonathan discuss how critical it is to fully understand what the statistics and numeric values describing your investment returns actually represent. They do so by describing what compound annual growth rate is, explaining the logic behind the 4 percent rule, and by referencing helpful insights gained in previous episodes of ChooseFI! Later in the show, the guys are joined by Rob Phelan from "The Simple Startup" to discuss second generation FI, the benefits of teaching children and teenagers about entrepreneurship, and Rob's new children's book M is for Money!

https://youtu.be/Th4VLhOs5lw
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Rob Phelan

Resources Mentioned In Today's Conversation